In Episode 95 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and author of Epsilon Theory, Ben Hunt, about the power of narrative and how it is used to shape and control our behavior as investors. This episode also includes a series of in-depth discussions about the long legacy of the 2008 financial crisis, identitarian narratives, three-body problems, the challenge of making accurate predictions, and ‘The Great Bitcoin Epic.'
Ben Hunt’s background and career path have been anything but ordinary. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, co-founded multiple tech companies, and managed his own billion-dollar hedge fund. When he isn’t busy writing about market narratives or indeterminant models, you can find him tending to his horses, gathering a fresh basket of eggs, or engaging in other chores on his family farm in Connecticut.
The main themes from Epsilon Theory that we focus on in this conversation include the three-body problem, as well as Ben Hunt’s writings on narrative and the power that comes from shaping how people think about the world. This leads to a variety of discussions about various market phenomena, including a unique, thoughtful, and illuminating conversation on bitcoin – its culture, the narrative of bitcoin, how that narrative emerged, how it has evolved, and how it informs the price of bitcoin. Below are time codes for this episode:
06:45 How Markets Changed After March 2009
10:33 The Story that Changed the World in the Summer of 2012
12:24 No Fundamentals for Markets Anymore
15:54 The Three-Body Problem
27:02 Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Behavior
32:14 Turning Capital Markets into Political Utilities
34:45 Origins of Fed Communication
39:04 Forward Guidance and the Loss of Market Resilience
40:40 Informational Feedback at the Fed
43:50 Inflation vs. Deflation Narrative
46:26 The Role of Central Banks
49:11 Bear, Lehman, and the Banking Mafia
53:19 Shitcoin US Dollars
58:15 Facebook Libra and Censorship Embracing Coins
1:05:59 The New Bitcoin Narrative
1:08:01 Comparing Development Models for the Internet and Crypto
1:09:16 Culture of Bitcoin: Tech vs. Finance
1:14:13 Loss of Faith in Government
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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