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Hidden Forces

Get the edge with Hidden Forces where media entrepreneur and financial analyst Demetri Kofinas gives you access to the people and ideas that matter, so you can build financial security and always stay ahead of the curve.
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Now displaying: 2019
Dec 29, 2019

In Episode 116 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eugenia Zukerman, an internationally renowned flutist, writer, and former television correspondent. Eugenia was the artistic director of the Bravo! Vail Valley Music Festival in Colorado for thirteen years and the arts correspondent on CBS Sunday Morning for more than twenty-five years. She is the author of two novels, two works of nonfiction, and numerous screenplays, articles, and book reviews.   

Three years ago, Eugenia’s family began to notice changes in her cognition. She was unusually forgetful and at times confused in ways that seemed unusual. Pushed by her family to undergo testing, it was determined that she was suffering symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s. It was around this time that Eugenia took pen to paper, and began writing what turned into a lyrical memoir (“Like Falling Through a Cloud,”) of her experience coping with the type of forgetfulness and confusion that comes with such a difficult diagnosis.

What Eugenia Zuckerman is going through is a variation of what we will all face at some point in our lives, and it’s something that is particularly hard to accept for those of us who have been blessed with bountiful lives and the capacities to shape them. We’re used to getting our way, but when it comes to our mortality, we’re all in the same boat. We all have a common fate to share, and in some odd way, this can be a source of comfort. 

As we move into a new decade full of life, love, relationships, and opportunities, it would behoove us to focus a little bit more on the things that bring us together and less on the things that set us apart. In this sense, Eugenia’s story serves as an inspiration.

You can access this week’s transcript through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Dec 23, 2019

In Episode 115 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Brian Koffman, a doctor turned CLL patient, whose patient education and advocacy efforts have given hope and encouragement to CLL cancer patients everywhere.

Brian Koffman is extraordinary, in many ways. He’s extraordinary in the medical sense because, after twelve years of battling blood cancer, doctors can no longer find a single trace of malignancy in his entire body. He is 100% cancer-free going on almost two years, thanks to an experimental therapy that wiped out his CLL cancer in less than a month. But there’s another way in which Dr. Koffman is extraordinary, and this has to do with how he has handled his diagnosis. Brian Koffman's willingness to share his experience undergoing cutting edge treatments, as well as his decision to leave his medical practice behind and dedicate his life entirely to being a CLL advocate have both had an enormously positive impact on the lives of CLL patients and their families.

Many listeners will already know Demetri’s story and that he is a survivor of a brain tumor that caused him debilitating psychological and physical distress, but which also empowered him to change his life. It took such an experience for Demetri to truly understand that his time in this world is limited. This is not just true of him; it is true of you, too. It’s true of all of us. We’re all mortal, and how we choose to spend our precious time in the face of this reality is what gives our lives their meaning. It is what distinguishes Dr. Koffman’s life from yours, and yours from someone else’s. 

Dr. Koffman has made his choices, and hopefully, he will have many, many more to make. His story is one of perseverance, leadership, generosity, and service to a cause greater than himself. But besides serving as an important source of information and optimism about a very serious illness, we hope that his story and this conversation provide you with cause to reflect on your own life and on the things that matter most to you and how you want to spend your remaining time on this planet.

For more information about Brian Koffmar or to learn more about his work in CLL patient education and advocacy, please visit https://cllsociety.org

You can access the afterthoughts segment to this week’s rundown, the transcript of Demetri conversation with Dr. Koffman, as well as the episode rundown (show notes and educational materials about the substance of today’s conversation) through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Dec 16, 2019

In this week’s episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor Mike Green. Mike Green most recently served as the discretionary portfolio manager for Thiel Macro, LLC, an investment firm that manages the personal capital of Peter Thiel. He's been a student of markets, and market structure in particular, for nearly 30 years. His research into and analysis of the shift from actively managed portfolios and investment funds to systematic passive investment strategies has been presented to the Federal Reserve, the BIS, the IMF and numerous other industry groups and associations. His intention has been to alert regulators to the clear and present danger that he feels these strategies pose to the stability and viability of global capital markets.

It is important to note that while the post-2008 period has seen a flourishing of more complex, behavioral approaches to economics that reject notions of equilibrium and mean-reversion, there has simultaneously been a doubling down among investors on passive strategies that see markets as stochastically predictable, efficient, and always mean-reverting. These approaches do not incorporate new information like price data or value metrics in their transaction functions. Most importantly, they do not incorporate the impact of their own buying or selling behavior. Indeed, according to Mike Green, “the incentive of these target funds, from a regulatory and lobbying standpoint, is to demonstrate that they don’t exist.” 

The forces of automation driven by our diminishingly available brain space, along with the need for generating higher yield seem to have overwhelmed investors’ understandings about how the world actually works. This imperative to deliver yield above what the market can bear on a reasonably, risk-reward basis, combined with the cognitive overload that investors and clients are experiencing in their daily lives may be leading us down a path of self-destruction.

This unease is captured in what Mike Green calls "the uncanny valley," a term most closely associated with the robotics design space. It is used to describe the aesthetic confusion one feels while encountering an android whose human resemblance is noticeably disturbing. Similarly, in markets today, many of us know that something is wrong but can't quite put our finger on what it is. Indeed, some of the best active managers in the business have given up trying to figure it out.

The purpose of today’s episode is to help shed light on the source of this unease and to set the foundation for the second part of our conversation, which has been made available to Patreon Audiophile, Autodidact, and Super Nerd subscribers. In the overtime, Demetri drills into the specifics of Mike’s thesis regarding the implications of passive investment strategies that have ballooned in popularity over the last 25 years making up forty-seven and twenty-seven percent respectively of assets under management in equities and bond funds at the end of 2018 – up from less than five percent in 1995. Mike also shares information about how he and his partners are managing their clients’ portfolios in order to mitigate the risks posed by these structural changes, as well as how they’ve sought to monetize the opportunities that these same flows represent.  

You can access the second part of today’s conversation, along with the transcript and rundown through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers are granted access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Dec 9, 2019

In Episode 113 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with John Mearsheimer, professor of political science and international relations at the University of Chicago. Dr. Mearsheimer’s intellectual contributions have had a profound influence on the thinking of an entire generation of students in international relations. He’s been a vocal critic of neoliberal hegemony, nation-building, as well as the so-called “forever wars” that America has been engaged in ever since the Bush administration’s invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. He is most closely associated with the realist school, which views the international system as fundamentally anarchic, where the most dominant concern among the great powers is defined by their desire and competition for security that sometimes leads to war. 

This conversation focuses on two major themes of John Mearsheimer’s latest book “The Great Delusion,” in which he attempts to explain why American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War up until the present day has been such a colossal failure, and how much of this failure can be ascribed to a fundamental misunderstanding on the part of America’s foreign policy elite about the relationship between nationalism and liberalism. John Mearsheimer argues that nationalism is by far the more powerful of the two forces and that therefore, liberal hegemony was always destined to fail. Mearsheimer makes the argument for a more restrained, humble US foreign policy that acknowledges not only the limits of nation-building but also the realities of international conflict that the United States is at risk of instigating with countries like China and Russia with whom it is currently in a deep security competition.

You can access the overtime, transcript, and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Dec 2, 2019

In Episode 112 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Steve Keen one of the few economists to correctly anticipate the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, as well as the subsequent deflationary forces that would frustrate and confound policymakers in the years afterward. The two discuss Keen’s latest work modeling the impact of climate on economic output, as well as debunking some of the most common misperceptions about money and credit held by Keynesian and Austrian theorists alike.

Demetri and Steve have known each other going back almost ten years. Dr. Keen was a frequent guest on Demetri’s old television program Capital Account, where he would come on to share his views on markets and the economy. For years, Steve had been warning policymakers and the media about the dangers of a build-up in private sector debt through mortgage refinancing and consumer credit. In the years after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, Steve Keen was one of the prominent voices alongside folks like Richard Koo, Mark Zandi, and others, who were ringing the alarm bell, warning about the risk of a deflationary spiral. Many of the more prominent, Austrian-trained economists like Thomas Woods, Peter Schiff, and others, were pounding the table about the risk of hyperinflation. In retrospect, it was those economists warning about deflation like Steve Keen, who had it right. In today’s conversation, we explore the reasons why and examine if those conditions still hold to this present day.

You can gain access to this week’s overtime segment, as well as to the transcript of Demetri’s conversation with Steve Keen through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Nov 25, 2019

In this week’s episode of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Politics at Princeton University and of Russian Studies and History at NYU. Dr. Cohen has received several scholarly honors over his lengthy career, including two Guggenheim fellowships and a National Book Award nomination, and was, for many years, a consultant and on-air commentator on Russian affairs for CBS News. Former CBS evening news anchor Dan Rather has referred to Stephen Cohen as “one of, if not the premier expert on the old Soviet Union, Russia, and Russian history in al of what we call Western civilization.”

We live in dangerous times, not only in international relations but also in domestic affairs. Russian fear-mongering and gratuitous insults leveled at Russian President, Vladimir Putin serve as powerful political litmus tests in contemporary America. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a presidential candidate for the Democratic party, was recently accused by former Secretary of State and two-time presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of being a “Russian Asset.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump is consistently chided for what his critics assert is “the conspicuous absence of any criticism of Vladimir Putin.” 

In the years since Russia’s occupation and annexation of Crimea, Stephen Cohen has become, in the words of one writer, “the most controversial Russia expert in America.” He’s been openly critical of NATO expansion since the idea was first proposed in the early-to-mid 90’s, and though this criticism puts him in good company, his views on Ukraine and what he sees as America’s role in inciting Russian aggression have left him marginalized and often times disparaged as a “Russian apologist.” 

Nonetheless, it is Stephen Cohen’s contention that American is now dangerously close to “War with Russia,” the title that he has chosen for his most recent book, which consists of a series of commentaries on current affairs originally published at The Nation Magazine. He views American foreign policy towards the post-Soviet Union as not only needlessly antagonistic but recklessly endangering of American national security, putting us at the greatest risk of nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

You can access this week’s overtime segment (an early release of Demetri’s conversation with physicist Sean Carroll), transcript, and rundown through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime RSS feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Nov 18, 2019

In Episode 110 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chief Investment Officer of Hayman Capital Management and founding member of the “Committee on the Present Danger: China,” about the gathering threat posed to Western, liberal democracies and open societies by the Chinese Communist Party. Kyle explains how the CCP and its state champions have been using US capital markets to fund the development of China’s armed forces, the threats posed by a Chinese operated 5G network, as well as concerns about the acquisition and use of Americans’ genomic data by the Chinese government. Kyle also goes into detail about his thesis on Hong Kong, its peg to the USD, as well as the fragility of its banking system. Additional topics include the “reeducation camps” and reports of organ harvesting in Xinjiang, the Chinese social credit system, the Federal Reserve Repo market, and Kyle’s outlook for the macroeconomy. 

The second part of this discussion is available to Hidden Forces Patreon subscribers. You can access that part of the conversation, as well as the rundown and transcript to this week’s episode by subscribing to one of our three content tiers. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Hidden Forces is listener funded. We rely on your support to keep the program free of corporate sponsors.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Nov 11, 2019

In Episode 109 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Financial Times Global Business Columnist, Rana Faroohar about her latest book dealing with the worlds of Big Tech and finance. 

We are living in a dramatic period of societal change and uncertainty that most generations rarely get to experience. The changes we are experiencing are being driven primarily by a particular set of Internet-enabled technologies and businesses that are undergoing a rapid phase of consolidation. 

The last time Americans saw anything similar was during the late 19th century. This was a period where people’s relationships to nature and to the land were being radically reshaped by the railroads, industrial capitalism, and urbanization. Their sense of time and space, their relationships to their communities, and to each other were being profoundly reordered and this produced an unprecedented amount of anxiety. Like today, this period coincided with a rise in populism and calls for heavy-handed regulation of what had become industrial monopolies. These monopolies were able to set prices and use anti-competitive tactics to bankrupt their competitors. Independent oil refiners, for instance, had to sell out to John D. Rockefeller, because he not only got preferential rates on his oil shipments, but Standard Oil was also getting rebates from the railroads on every barrel shipped by his competitors. And these types of anti-competitive practices were going on across the board in steel, tobacco, etc.  

It took a long time for the public to catch up, and for journalists like Ida Tarbell to emerge, who could begin to bring a necessary level of clarity to what was happening. Something similar is happening today with journalists and authors like Rana Foroohar and Shoshana Zuboff. The battlelines of 21st-century capitalism and liberalism are being radically redrawn. If we want to have a say in what this world looks like, we will need to educate ourselves and others about what’s gone wrong and how we can start to fix it. This episode is a step in that direction.

You can access this week’s overtime segment, transcript, and rundown through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Nov 4, 2019

In Episode 108 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Pauline Brown, the former Chairman of North America for LVMH, the world’s leading luxury goods company. Pauline has over thirty years’ experience acquiring, building, and leading some of the world’s most influential, luxury brands. In this conversation, she shares insights about how anyone can strengthen and grow his or her own aesthetic intelligence and apply that intelligence towards enhancing the quality and prosperity of one’s life and business.

Pauline’s case for aesthetic intelligence rests on four basic points. The first is simply that aesthetics matter, not only in life but also in business. The second is that aesthetic intelligence can be cultivated. In fact, each of us possesses far more capacity than we use; aesthetic vision and leadership also have the power to transform companies and even entire sectors, as has been proven time and again by companies like Apple, Dyson, and others. Lastly, in the absence of aesthetics, most businesses are susceptible to potentially fatal challenges. In other words, when a company’s aesthetics fail, so does the company.  

Her overall message is that aesthetics matter and that they can be cultivated. As Pauline says: “Although I believe that each of us has the potential to boost our aesthetic intelligence, it takes time and effort. It is just like developing other muscles.”  In this episode, we learn approaches and concrete exercises for building one’s “aesthetic muscles” and using them to win over customers, starting with exercises for enhancing what Pauline Brown calls (1) attunement, which she defines as “developing a higher consciousness of one’s environment and the effect of its stimuli;” (2) interpretation, which means “translating one’s emotional reactions (both positive and negative) to sensorial stimuli into thoughts that form the basis of an aesthetic position, preference, or expression;” (3) articulation, or expressing the “aesthetic ideals for one’s brand, product, or service such that team members not only grasp the vision but can execute on it with precision;” and (4) curation, or “organizing, integrating, and editing a wide variety of inputs and ideals to achieve maximum impact.” 

According to Pauline Brown: “When it comes to aesthetics, editorial command is all-important; as Coco Chanel said, “Elegance is refusal.”  

You can access the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers are granted access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Oct 28, 2019

In Episode 107 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with New Yorker staff writer Andrew Marantz, about his new book “Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation. In the book, Andrew reveals how the boundaries between technology, media, and politics have been erased, resulting in the deeply broken informational landscape in which we all now live. This conversation is meant to help us understand what went wrong and how we might go about trying to fix it.

For several years, New Yorker staff writer Andrew Marantz has been embedded in two worlds. The first is the world of social-media entrepreneurs—the new gatekeepers of Silicon Valley—who upended all traditional means of receiving and transmitting information. The second is the world of the people he calls the gate-crashers—the conspiracists, white supremacists, and nihilist trolls who have become experts at using social media to advance their agenda, influence elections, or just make money. Marantz weaves these two worlds together to create an unsettling portrait of today’s America, both online and in real life. He reveals how the boundaries between technology, media, and politics have been erased, resulting in the deeply broken informational landscape in which we all now live. In candid conversations with Silicon Valley executives and social media entrepreneurs, Andrew Marantz discovers a selective community of techno-utopians who took Mark Zuckerberg’s motto, “Move Fast and Break Things,” to heart. Viewing their role as disruptors to be free of any responsibility to actually monitor the tools they have built, they either choose not to police their users’ actions or, in many cases, don’t know where to begin. In fact, in Andrew’s portrayal, such policing is often seen by these techno-utopians as being antithetical to the nature of democracy, which they synonymize with the Internet writ large. 

In the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, it became apparent to Andrew that something was happening online. On Facebook for instance, while many of the traditional gatekeepers to information—like Reason, Foreign Affairs, the Nation, and more—were seeing less engagement with readers, other, darker corners of the platform were thriving. Most people view social media as a reflection of popular will and interest, but the virality industry is built on a large number of small human choices. At every step, there are people behind the curtain, and ahead of the election, someone was attempting to drag the notion of a Trump presidency from the fringes into the realm of the imaginable. But who were these new virologists? Enter the gate-crashers. Marantz spent years analyzing how alienated young people are led down the rabbit hole of online radicalization, and how fringe ideas spread—from anonymous corners of social media to cable TV to the President's Twitter feed. Along the way, he met with the men and women responsible for it all. He ate breakfast at the Trump SoHo with self-proclaimed “internet supervillain” Milo Yiannopoulos; toured a rural Illinois junkyard with freelance Twitter propagandist Mike Cernovich; drank in a beer hall with white nationalist Mike Enoch; and shadowed histrionic far-right troll Lucian Wintrich during his first week as a White House press correspondent. Marantz also spent hundreds of hours talking to people who were ensnared in the cult of web-savvy white supremacy—and to a few who managed to get out. 

In the overtime to this week’s episode, Demetri shares stories from his time working at RT, including intimate details from his relationships and encounters with some of the characters discussed in Andrew’s book. The two also continue a conversation about gender and race, as well as the role of power in society. 

You can listen to the overtime, as well as gain access to the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to their very own overtime feed, which you can easily add to your favorite podcast applications like Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, Overcast, Pandora, etc.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Oct 17, 2019

In Episode 106 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Landis, a Middle East scholar and Syria expert about the disorderly withdrawal of American forces from Syria and the larger shift in the balance of power that we are seeing as nations scramble to remake alliances in the wake of America’s absence.

It seems that what we've seen transpire in the Middle East during the past week is a symptom of a much larger trend: the deterioration of the rules-based international order, the fulcrum around which the world has turned for three generations—the entirety of living memory. It is the break-down of national borders, in many cases borders that have been artificially constructed and maintained by the credible threat of American military power. As America begins its long-anticipated withdrawal from the world stage, others will rise to take her place. It was probably naive to imagine that this could happen in a managed way. Perhaps it was always destined to be messy. As much as Trump's detractors wish to blame him for the mess in Syria, the truth is, he is only an accelerant. He isn't responsible for assembling the reactants. 

The forces currently being unleashed in what was once Northern Syria remain contained within the Greater Middle East, but Turkey’s involvement creates the potential for spillover into the Balkans and southern Europe at some indeterminate date in the future. Turkey has been flexing its geopolitical muscles with Greece for years. It is no longer inconceivable to imagine that its membership in NATO will prove to be an insufficient deterrent for curbing Turkish military aggression or the expansionary ambitions of Erdoğan in the Aegean. Erdoğan seems to be staking his political career on the vision of a more assertive and expansionary Turkish foreign policy. Turkey remains strategically indispensable to the US & NATO. If he expands Turkey's current activities in Cypriot waters, it isn't clear who will stop him.

It's a cliché, but all bets do seem to be off. If the nations of the world decide that America can no longer guarantee their security or maintain the integrity of their borders, we may start to see a rapid reorganization of the international order along radically different lines. It's hard to believe, but Russia has played its cards better than any one of the major powers. It has capitalized on (and in some cases stoked) the chaos of political dysfunction both within and across the transatlantic relationship. It seems to have positioned itself as the new dance partner for any country suddenly in need of an escort. Its economy may be half the size of California's, but this has not stopped Putin from rebranding the Russian Federation as "the new neighborhood muscle," that will have your back when the US doesn't.

America's leaders have exhibited remarkable incompetence in the area of foreign policy, displaying only flickering instances of humility and foresight since being thrust upon the world stage as the new global hegemon and the only standing survivor of the Cold War. For years, we've been asking ourselves what this new world is going to look like, a world without America guaranteeing security for the liberal, democratic order. The events currently transpiring in Syria may be giving us our first real glimpse of what that world will look like. It's chaotic. It's authoritarian. And it's more violent. This is the new backdrop for which the circus that is American politics will play out in 2020. Democratic candidates who have staked their candidacies on demonizing Donald Trump, while avoiding addressing the forces that brought him to office in the first place risk being totally blindsided by even lower voter turnout and a re-election of Donald Trump in 2020. If that happens, American foreign policy will likely go into crisis. It's really unclear at that point what would happen. The proverbial "Deep State" has resisted his candidacy from the beginning but has not gone so far as to overthrow his popular mandate. Should he be re-elected, what will Washington's elite, its intelligence agencies and wealthy benefactors do? Will they sit by and watch while Trump dismantles what is left of their dysfunctional experiment in American empire? Or, will they impeach him? He certainly hasn't made it difficult with his actions, but they no longer have the credibility to do it without further sacrificing their own legitimacy.

This is truly uncharted waters. We should all pray that a new consensus can emerge in the next twelve months that will bring enough of the country together to stop the bleeding, but it is not clear from what source this unanimity will spring.

This week’s rundown is a 16-page compilation of all the information (including pictures and links material referenced during the episode) compiled by Demetri ahead of his recording with Joshua Landis. You can access this document, along with a transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Oct 15, 2019

In Episode 105 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jake Hanrahan about the crisis unfolding in the border region between Syria and Turkey following the US withdrawal of forces from northern Syria. This withdrawal precipitated the subsequent assault by Turkish Armed Forces on the Kurdish YPG-controlled region of Rojava. Jake Hanrahan is an independent journalist and documentary filmmaker based in the UK. He has reported from Syria, Iraq, southeast Turkey, and other conflict zones for HBO, Vice News, PBS Newshour, and BBC News, to name a few. 

Turkish President Erdogan, after obtaining the consent of President Trump, began his invasion into the Kurdish YPG controlled region of Syria known as Rojava this past Wednesday. During Sunday’s “Face the Nation,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper confirmed to Margaret Brennan that roughly 1,000 U.S. troops would be evacuated from northern Syria following Trump’s troop withdrawal announcement. There are also multiple reports of ISIS families and fighters previously captured and held by Kurdish forces starting to escape after Tukey’s bombardments. Also, Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen reported Sunday that the Syrian army would enter Manbij and Kobani in the next 48 hours, based on an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (the latter, according to Mohammed Shaheen, the deputy chairman of Euphrates region told North-Press). 

It seems that what we are seeing transpire in the Middle East is the disintegration of artificially constructed national borders around sectarian lines. The forces being unleashed have thus far remain contained within the Greater Middle East, but Turkey’s involvement creates the further potential for spillover into the Balkans and southern Europe at some indeterminate future date. Additionally, Turkey has been flexing its geopolitical muscles where Greece is concerned in recent years, and it is no longer inconceivable to imagine that its troubled relationship to the EU and its membership in NATO will prove insufficient as deterrents for curbing Turkish military aggression or the expansionary ideas of Erdoğan in the Aegean. 

This conversation is meant to help Hidden Forces listeners develop some context for what has transpired over the past week, the significance of Trump’s decision, and the implications moving forward. 

Hidden Forces is listener funded. We rely on you to help us keep the program free of corporate advertising. You can help us do that by subscribing to one of our three content tiers through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. Your support is deeply appreciated.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Oct 14, 2019

In Episode 104 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Maloney, perennial entrepreneur and host of the documentary series Hidden Secrets of Money about monetary history, libertarianism, and Austrian economics. 

Before starting GoldSilver.com, Mike overcame his childhood dyslexia to found a series of companies, including a high-end stereo manufacturer, winning several design awards in the process. Few people know this, but one of Mike Maloney’s own designs is on permanent display at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London. Mike also grew up dyslexic, leaving school after the 9th grade. Mike’s first job was as a traveling salesman, driving all over the Southwest and as far North as Oregon with a van full of samples and catalogs of automotive parts and accessories that he sold to customers. Eventually, Mike started his own high-end stereo equipment manufacturer, as well as an annual show called the Home Entertainment Show that took place during the same day as the Consumer Electronics Show. It was not until the very early 2000’s that Mike Maloney got the idea for GoldSilver.com, which began as a gold and silver brokerage, and which eventually developed into a reputable source for educational media content on Austrian economics, precious metals, and libertarian thought. For more than a decade now, Mike Maloney has traveled the world, sharing his relentless passion for economics and monetary history with audiences from Silicon Valley to Wall Street and from Hong Kong to Rome. He joins us today on Hidden Forces to share that experience with us.

The overtime to this week's episode includes a lengthy conversation about Tesla, as Mike Maloney is a Tesla Bull, and has taken some issue with our bearish coverage of the electric car manufacturer and its founder, Elon Musk. This segment, as well as the transcript and rundown to the full episode, are available to audiophile, autodidact, and super nerd subscribers through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Oct 7, 2019

In Episode 103 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with cultural psychologist Michele Gelfand, who argues that the world’s cultures can be classified into two categories by virtue of their norms. She offers a lucid explanation of how and why cultures become tight or loose, outlining their different societal attitudes. This episode is full of eye-opening insights for development professionals, policymakers and those working in international business. 

According to Gelfand, tight cultures have a large number of social norms that enforce order and conformity and tend to evolve in nations that face many natural and human-made threats. Loose cultures, on the other hand, have more lenient norms and tolerate a wider array of behaviors. They generally face fewer chronic threats – but may tighten up temporarily in the event of an acute threat. Furthermore, says Michele, tight and loose cultures each have advantages and disadvantages and it’s possible to modify a nation’s norms in order to address protracted social problems. This is also true in the private sector. In a particularly relevant part of the conversation, Michele describes how businesses also develop tight or loose cultures and how a cultural mismatch can doom a merger or undermine cooperation among a corporation’s divisions. The example she provides is that of Chrysler and Mercedes Benz, but Demetri also raises the example of AOL-Time Warner, perhaps the most prominent failed marriage of the late 90’s stock market boom. 

“Tight” cultures, like Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Germany, embrace rigid norms and mete out harsh punishments for those who deviate. “Loose” cultures, including New Zealand, the United States, and Brazil, are more tolerant of a wide assortment of behaviors. According to Dr. Gelfand, when countries, families, companies, and US states all act in accordance with their divergent conceptions of “normal,” misunderstandings and conflict often arise that help to explain many of the phenomena we encounter in daily life, business, and politics.

The overtime to this week's episode includes a conversation about changing cultural norms in the workplace, as well as how the norms in some western countries began to change after terrorist attacks. 

This overtime segment, as well as the transcript and rundown to the full episode, are available to audiophile, autodidact, and super nerd subscribers through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Sep 30, 2019

In Episode 102 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist and former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, William White, about the state of our market economy and the prospects for an ‘international reset’ of the global financial system.

William R. White was most recently chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from 2009 to 2018. He is famous for having flagged the wild behavior in debt markets before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He began his career in 1969 as an economist working at the Bank of England. In 1972 he joined the Bank of Canada where he spent 22 years and was appointed Deputy Governor in September 1988. In 1994, he joined the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and served as its Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department from May 1995 to June 2008. 

In their conversation, Demetri and Dr. White discuss a wide range of topics focused primarily on the global financial system. Their conversation begins with a focus on the state of the current system, including a discussion about the consequences of regulatory reform (both intended and unintended), as well as endogenous transformation to the system brought about by independent changes in the behavior of banks and other financial participants. Most of the conversation dealing with possible changes to the International Monetary and Financial System happen during the Episode Overtime, including a discussion about central bank-issued cryptocurrencies, private sector digital money like Libra, and Bitcoin. The overtime also includes a lengthy discussion about government policy in the face of climate change, and how this relates to the politics of monetary policy.

William White has spent five decades as a central banker and international financial policymaker, and we are fortunate beneficiaries of the wisdom that he has accrued during these many years. 

Additional topics discussed during the episode include post-crisis reform, market architecture, currency wars, negative interest rates, the Chinese renminbi, causes for inflation, Japanification, the ‘Global Ring of Fire,’ and much more.

You can access the rundown to this week’s episode, along with a transcript of Demetri and Dr. White’s conversation through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers are granted access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Sep 23, 2019

In Episode 101 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Casey, an acclaimed author, journalist, researcher, and entrepreneur who currently serves as CEO and founder of Streambed Media, an early-stage video production and technology platform that seeks to optimize capital formation and creative output in the digital media industry. Michael is also chairman of CoinDesk’s advisory board and a senior advisor at the MIT Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative, where he has spearheaded research projects that employ blockchain technology to achieve social impact goals.

Michael Casey’s breadth of experience as a financial journalist for Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal, as well as his time spent stationed overseas in Thailand and Argentina, provide him with a unique perspective on the ‘problem of trust’ and what he calls ‘the Internet’s original sin.’ The latter is a reference to the observation that the inventors of packet switching and the basic Web protocols did, according to Casey, “a masterful job figuring how to move information seamlessly across a distributed network. What they didn’t do was resolve the problem of trust.” “On the one hand,” writes the chairman of CoinDesk’s advisory board, “the distribution of public information was disintermediated, which put all centralized providers of that information, especially newspapers and other media outlets, under intense business pressure from blogs and other new information competitors. But on the other, all valuable information – particularly money itself, an especially valuable form of information – was still intermediated by trusted third parties.”

This intersection between money, communication, and trust serves as the basis for Demetri and Michael’s conversation during this episode. The two discuss Shoshana Zuboff’s work on Surveillance Capitalism, the loss of faith in financial institutions and central banks (including recent actions by the Federal Open Market Committee and the intervention by the Fed in the overnight Repo market), and how cryptocurrencies and distributed ledger technology aims to reinstill this lost faith by resolving the problem of trust.

The overtime to this week’s episode is an exhaustive exploration of the forces driving cryptocurrency adoption around the globe, the cultural impetus behind these forces, and the financial imperatives fueling Bitcoin's ascent as truly global money.

You can access the overtime, along with a transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to the overtime RSS feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Sep 16, 2019

In Episode 100 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hedera Hashgraph founders Leemon Baird and Mance Harmon about Open Access, now that the network has officially gone public. This is the go-to-episode for anyone looking to understand the public ledger and why Fortune 100 companies like IBM, Deutsche Telekom, Boeing, and others have joined Hedera's Governing Council.

As a seed investor in Hedera Hashgraph, Demetri’s involvement with the public ledger goes back to September 2017, when he first invited Leemon Baird onto Hidden Forces to discuss the Hashgraph Whitepaper. Weeks later, Demetri put on an event at the Assemblage NoMad where Mance Harmon joined a panel alongside two other members of the executive team. The panel explored the innovation of Hashgraph consensus, specifically virtual voting and gossip-about-gossip. On March 13th, 2018, Leemon and Mance announced the launch of Hedera Hashgraph at an event in New York City, and on August 1st, 2018, news of the ledger’s $6 Billion valuation was made public. Six months later, Hedera announced the initial group of Governing Council Members, and six months after this IBM, Tata Communications, FIS, and Boeing were announced as having joined Hedera’s Governing Council as well. Two years since Leemon Baird first appeared on Hidden Forces to share the news about Hashgraph, Hedera has finally gone public. Open Access also marks the beginning of Hedera’s strategic 15-year coin distribution, with HBAR tokens beginning to be released on exchanges in the US and Asia.

This recording is meant to be the go-to-episode for anyone looking to understand Hedera Hashgraph DLT and the functions of the Hedera Governing Council. Demetri also references a back-and-forth on Twitter between him, Hedera’s technical lead, and a number of Hedera skeptics resulting from a medium post by writer and blockchain enthusiast Eric Wall. Hedera’s technical lead, Paul Madsen, responded with his own posts. Demetri has encouraged anyone interested in learning more about Hedera Hashgraph to engage with the team through their Telegram channel, as well as on Twitter.

Relevant Timecodes:

00:11:53 Governing Council Announcements

00:14:08 Hedera Consensus Service with Hyperledger Foundation 

00:16:50 What is Finality?

00:18:57 Probabilistic Consensus: The Problem with Not Having Finality

00:20:25 Proof of Work Slows Us Down

00:21:51 How is This Possible?

00:28:57 Coq Proof

00:34:05 Theoretical Competitors to Hashgraph

00:35:59 Database Sharding

00:44:15 Proof-of-Stake vs. Proof-of-Work

00:49:39 Hedera Proxy Staking (POS)

00:50:58 Private vs. Public Networks /Permissioned vs. Permissionless Databases

00:52:35 Path to Decentralization

00:53:45 Market Capitalization & Network Security

00:56:16 Addressing Scams

00:58:47 Theoretical Attacks, Proxy Staking & HBARS

01:06:12 Network Fees

01:08:08 How Governance Works in Hedera

01:10:07 Governing Council: “Can’s” and “Can'ts"

01:17:19 Ownership of HBARS

01:19:21 Stability: Open Source vs. Open Review

01:27:29 Regulatory Approach: Squeaky Clean

01:31:32 Use Cases

You can access that rundown, along with a transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Sep 9, 2019

In episode 99 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Claudio Borio about outstanding sources of financial instability and some of the challenges facing Central Banks as the economy and markets begin to show signs of weakness heading towards the end of 2019. Dr. Borio heads the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements and has written extensively about some of the longer-term, structural forces bedeviling policymakers since the early 2000s. 

More recently, the Federal Reserve held its annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Jay Powell delivered a speech titled, “Challenges for Monetary Policy,” in which he addresses “three longer run questions” bedeviling policymakers. In the speech, Powell breaks up the post-war history of central banking into three distinct eras: 1950–1982, 1983–2009, and 2010—. The day before Jay Powell’s speech, on August 22nd, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, published a series of tweets where he conducted a similar retrospective analysis of central bank policy going back to the stagflationary period of the 1970s. According to Larry Summers, “the high inflation and high-interest rates of the 1970s generated a revolution in macroeconomic thinking, policy, and institutions,” while the “low inflation, low-interest rates and stagnation of the last decade…deserves at least an equal response.” Further, Summers writes, “the financial crisis had roots in bubbles and excessive leverage caused by efforts to maintain demand after the 2001 recession,” which suggests that perhaps, the maniacal focus on inflation amplified by the experience of the stagflationary nineteen-seventies blinded central banks and policymakers to a build-up in financial risks exacerbated by keeping interest rates “too low for too long” during the 1990’s and early 2000’s.   

The conversation you’re about to hear was recorded on Monday, August 19th, several days before the publication of Jay Powell’s speech, as well as Larry Summers’ tweets. Some of the key questions we attempt to answer during this discussion are: “What’s driving the slow growth environment that we are in?” “Are rates low because central banks are keeping them low, or are rates low because central banks, encouraged by a prolonged period of disinflation, kept interest rates chronically below the ‘natural rate’ for too long, thus encouraging the growth of asset price fueled credit bubbles that have turned central banks from being stewards of the expansion to now being managers of the contraction?” 

Demetri and Claudio also explore the different eras highlighted in Chairman Powell’s speech, search for the origins of inflation targeting as a policy objective, question the efficacy of neutral rate targeting, and consider some of the possible consequences that could arise from an economic model that has increasingly come to rely upon debt financing in order to grow.

In the overtime, Demetri asks Dr. Claudio Borio questions about the BIS 2019 Annual report, with a keen focus on some of the more immediate risks facing the global economy. This week’s rundown is particularly useful for those seeking to gain a deeper sense of the issues discussed during the podcast. You can access that rundown, along with a transcript to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter a at @hiddenforcespod

Aug 26, 2019

I've taken the next few weeks off for a much needed summer vacation. I'll be releasing a couple of overtime segments while I'm gone that are normally available only to our Patreon subscribers.

This segment was recorded with Senator Bob Kerrey, one of the ten members of the 9/11 Commission. Not only are his comments about the Kingdom's involvement in the attacks provocative and revealing, but the conversation itself is jovial and pleasant in a way that is rarely seen in our politics today.

This recording also includes information about upcoming episodes, including conversations with the Chairman of North America for Louis Vuitton, the co-founder of Kickstarter, and many other notable guests.

I hope you all enjoy it, and please feel free to reach out to me by email at dk@hiddenforces.io with any feedback or suggestions about the show and our upcoming lineup of guests. 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Aug 19, 2019

In Episode 98 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with famed Hong Kong investor David Webb, an outspoken critic of China’s authoritarian grip over the coastal territory.

There are two parts to this story that we explore during this conversation. The first deals with Hong Kong – specifically, its political and economic future as an independent territory of mainland China. The second deals with China itself – specifically, its political and financial stability as the most leveraged economy at scale, in the world. 

The events in Hong Kong over the last several months – exacerbated by Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s determination to push through the Extradition bill despite mounting opposition – have created a terrifying sense of crisis and disorder in the city. Videos of police beatings and retaliatory violence by protestors, as well as satellite images of what appear to be armored personnel carriers and other vehicles belonging to China’s paramilitary People’s Armed Police, have created an ominous sense of foreboding in the city. "One country, two systems," might be the fault line upon which the tectonic forces shaping China’s political and economic development are colliding, creating mountains of civil unrest among Hong Kongers. At what point do the political tremors in Hong Kong become civic earthquakes capable of shattering the fragile peace between these two irreconcilable systems? Will open society prevail in Hong Kong, or will China do whatever it takes in order to reassert control over the former British colony?

In the second part of this conversation, David Webb shares his insights from his decades of experience studying the Chinese economy and investing in Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. Those insights include a discussion about China’s overleveraged banking system, an overvalued RMB, and a system of Ponzi financing for Chinese companies listed on non-mainland exchanges. David Webb also contests a thesis famously put forward by hedge fund manager Kyle Bass about the precarious position of Hong Kong’s currency and the risk of decoupling with the US dollar. Additional topics include a new “tech cold war,” China’s propaganda battle, the US-China trade war, and much, much more. 

There is no overtime to this week’s episode on account of some technical constraints. Instead, we have made the transcript to this conversation available to Overtime subscribers, which will be published in the next day or two. You can gain access to the transcript, as well as a copy of the rundown to this week’s episode directly through our Patreon page

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Aug 12, 2019

In Episode 97 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nic Carter, co-founder of both the VC fund Castle Island Ventures, as well as the research and data analytics company Coinmetrics.io. Nic also has a master’s degree in philosophy, and the two spend much of the overtime applying that discipline to bitcoin by examining the works of people like Friedrich Nietzsche and his philosophy around essence, John Rawls and his veil of ignorance, as well as applying a strain of utilitarian thought to questions of money and society.

This conversation with Nic Carter is an attempt to understand Bitcoin as more than just the sum of its parts. One of the lessons that Demetri has taken away from his continued research into Bitcoin through the works of people like Nick Szabo, Paul Sztorc, and others, is that trying to measure the cryptocurrency against existing systems or conventions is almost always counterproductive. This is likely because Bitcoin is more than just money or a payments network. Bitcoin is a movement. Within it exists a competent community of intellectuals who are actively engaged in what often feels like a grand project to remake society. This comes across in the seriousness with which Bitcoiners apply themselves. This is true whether we are talking about the engineers working on enhancements to the base layer or whether we’re talking about those contributing intellectually to debates about governance, economics, and ethics. In this sense, Bitcoin is not what most of us think it is, and even what we think it is, is constantly changing. Bitcoin’s resilience and adaptability, as both a store of value, but also as a diverse community of people who are coming to the cryptocurrency from different backgrounds and with differing motivations suggests that there is much more going on here than just naïve speculation. 

As Nic Carter points out during this conversation, Bitcoin is a “subversive idea.” Bitcoin is an experiment in social organization that doesn’t play by the rules of the state or by the conventions of modern society. The momentum behind this movement is likely to grow, especially if governments validate the concerns of its proponents with further debt monetization or preferential bailouts in the event of another global financial downturn. In short, Bitcoin is not going away, and it is incumbent upon all of us to understand the message that it is here to deliver.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Aug 5, 2019

In this week’s episode of Hidden Forces, I make available the overtime to my episode with journalist Matt Taibbi that aired on February 18th, 2019. 

In this overtime, Matt Taibbi shares his experience on the campaign trail with Donald Trump in 2016, as well as his predictions for the 2020 election. Matt and I also discuss the Goldman Sachs 1MDB scandal, which has remained largely out of the headlines.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Jul 29, 2019

In Episode 96 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and co-founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal about the future of global money in a multi-polar world, including a discussion about Bitcoin, Libra, debt, demographics, and much more.

The inspiration for this conversation derives from a theme captured in William Strauss and Neil Howe's Generational Theory, also known as the Fourth Turning, where the authors describe a four-stage cycle of social moods associated with recurring generational archetypes, which they call "turnings.” These include: "The High", "The Awakening", "The Unraveling," and "The Crisis." The question we explore in this conversation is: “are we at the fourth turning, and if so, what does this mean for the type of change we can expect to see in the coming decades?” 

All of this leads to a discussion about digital currency in a multi-polar world where the power of governments to maintain the global order is diminished and where corporations and the private sector may gain an opening to provide alternative forms of money in support of global trade and commerce. Where does bitcoin fit in this world? What about alternative protocols and currencies? Will governments even allow them? Can they stop them or will they welcome them and does this point the way towards a path that will lead inexorably towards truly global money?

As always, subscribers to our Hidden Forces Patreon page can access the overtime to this week’s episode, which includes a continuation of our conversation about digital currencies, but also a discussion about central bank policy at the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ, as well as a discussion about economic indicators and what Raoul relies on most for his own projections about where we are in the business cycle.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Jul 22, 2019

In Episode 95 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and author of Epsilon Theory, Ben Hunt, about the power of narrative and how it is used to shape and control our behavior as investors. This episode also includes a series of in-depth discussions about the long legacy of the 2008 financial crisis, identitarian narratives, three-body problems, the challenge of making accurate predictions, and ‘The Great Bitcoin Epic.'

Ben Hunt’s background and career path have been anything but ordinary. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, co-founded multiple tech companies, and managed his own billion-dollar hedge fund. When he isn’t busy writing about market narratives or indeterminant models, you can find him tending to his horses, gathering a fresh basket of eggs, or engaging in other chores on his family farm in Connecticut.

The main themes from Epsilon Theory that we focus on in this conversation include the three-body problem, as well as Ben Hunt’s writings on narrative and the power that comes from shaping how people think about the world. This leads to a variety of discussions about various market phenomena, including a unique, thoughtful, and illuminating conversation on bitcoin – its culture, the narrative of bitcoin, how that narrative emerged, how it has evolved, and how it informs the price of bitcoin. Below are time codes for this episode:

06:45 How Markets Changed After March 2009

10:33 The Story that Changed the World in the Summer of 2012

12:24 No Fundamentals for Markets Anymore

15:54 The Three-Body Problem

27:02 Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Behavior

32:14 Turning Capital Markets into Political Utilities

34:45 Origins of Fed Communication

39:04 Forward Guidance and the Loss of Market Resilience

40:40 Informational Feedback at the Fed

43:50 Inflation vs. Deflation Narrative

46:26 The Role of Central Banks

49:11 Bear, Lehman, and the Banking Mafia

53:19 Shitcoin US Dollars

58:15 Facebook Libra and Censorship Embracing Coins

1:05:59 The New Bitcoin Narrative 

1:08:01 Comparing Development Models for the Internet and Crypto

1:09:16 Culture of Bitcoin: Tech vs. Finance

1:14:13 Loss of Faith in Government

 

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Jul 15, 2019

In Episode 94 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author of REBOOT, Jerry Colonna about leadership and the art of growing up. 

This is a deeply personal conversation, but it is also one that draws upon the common wellspring of human experience. Learning to be a great leader is also about learning how to become an adult, and this requires that we learn how to embrace life in all of its beauty, suffering, and grace.

The introduction to this week’s episode retells the story of Minos, King of Knossos after whom the great Minoan civilization is named. The Minoans populated the islands of the eastern Mediterranean during the second millennium, and are thought by some modern scholars of antiquity to have provided the substance for Plato’s Atlantis reference in Timaeus and Critias. 

As is often the case, this week’s episode overtime rivals the full episode in quality and depth, as both Jerry and Demetri share personal stories of suffering, grace, and transformation. You can access this part of the recording, along with our entire library of subscription content on the Hidden Forces Patreon page at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

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