In Episode 92 of Hidden Forces, Demetri speaks with East Asian affairs expert Ho-Fung Hung about the upcoming US-China trade talks taking place at this weekend’s G20 summit, as Xi-Jinping grapples with the ongoing protests in Hong Kong. Ho-Fung is the Henry M. and Elizabeth P. Wiesenfeld Professor in Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University, as well as the author of two books on China, including the award-winning “Protests with Chinese Characteristics,” published in 2011.
On June 16th, 2019, an estimated 2 million people took to the streets of Hong Kong to protest the handling of a proposed extradition bill by the Hong Kong government and its Chief Executive Carrie Lam. This followed two massive demonstrations against the extradition bill earlier in the month, including one where police used pepper spray and tear gas against protesters. The controversial bill would allow Hong Kong to extradite to the mainland those accused of crimes under the People’s Republic of China’s Communist Party-led legal system. While Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has suspended the bill, she has refused to withdraw it.
In this episode, we discuss what the protests mean for the future of Hong Kong and what they say about Hong Kong’s relationship with mainland China. This includes an exploration of Hong Kong history going back to the Opium Wars and the signing of the Treaty of Nanking (Nanjing) in 1842, which ceded the Hong Kong island with surrounding smaller islands, to the United Kingdom in perpetuity.
Hong Kong activists have raised more than HK$5 million ($640,606) in a crowdfunding campaign to take out newspaper ads in a bid to get this controversial extradition bill on the agenda at the G20 summit. We discuss the details of the extradition amendment, but also consider prior offenses by the Hong Kong government that led to similar uprisings. The Umbrella Movement of 2014 is perhaps the most recent, but Ho-Fung and Demetri also discuss the 2003 protests that were then inspired by similar concerns over Basic Law Article 23 that threatened to roll back important civil liberties like freedom of speech.
In addition to the recent Hong Kong protests, Demetri and Ho-Fung Hung spend the duration of the overtime in a conversation about the RMB-USD peg, China’s debilitating debt problem, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the China industrial lobby. Ho-Fung provides a path for how China may manage to avoid an all-out economic collapse after decades of uninterrupted growth and massive credit expansion. This part of the conversation, along with the transcript and rundown to today’s episode can be accessed through our Patreon page at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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In Episode 91 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, about the latest Fed rate decision and his outlook for the global economy. In the overtime to this week’s episode, David provides listeners with a look into his investment strategy and how he is positioning himself and his clients for a global slowdown that he believes may already be underway.
David Rosenberg and Demetri recorded this episode only hours after the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting this past Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the fed funds rate unchanged, while simultaneously signaling a strong willingness to begin easing, possibly as soon as next month.
It is David Rosenberg’s conviction that the Federal Reserve has over tightened monetary policy during this cycle possibly by as many as one-hundred basis points – four rate hikes - and that Jay Powell and the board of governors at the Fed are worried that they may have precipitated the bursting of another bubble. This time, however, the bubble isn’t in housing or consumer credit. The bubble in 2019 is in the corporate bond market where multinational corporations have feasted on the issuance of trillions of dollars of new debt used to finance mergers, acquisitions, and share buybacks, while simultaneously cutting back on the capital investment needed to grow their businesses and service their debts long-term.
The last ten years have been a great time for stocks, fueled by a bonanza of free money and an implicit guarantee by the Fed to support asset prices at all costs. But the question has always lingered, “What will happen as the Fed continues to raise rates, normalize its balance sheet and tighten monetary policy?” Is this a new financial paradigm where fundamentals no longer matter and perpetual liquidity is the name of the game or does the global economy’s increased reliance on debt financing in order to drive earnings and levitate asset prices remain as unsustainable today as it has been in any prior historical period? Is this time truly different?
As always, subscribers to our Hidden Forces Patreon page can access the overtime to this week’s episode, which includes a discussion about how David is positioning himself and his clients for the likelihood of a recession and return to bear market territory for stocks and commodities. We discuss the US dollar, precious metals, treasuries, currencies, as well as certain defensive stocks that David believes are likely to outperform the overall market in a downturn. You can learn more at Patreon.com/HiddenForces.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
In Episode 90 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with former United States Defense Secretary Ash Carter. Secretary Ash Carter served as head of the US Defense Department during President Barack Obama’s second term in office. Before his time as Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter served in the number two and number three positions at the Pentagon.
As you can all imagine, it was a privilege for Demetri to have a cabinet secretary on the podcast, particularly someone with Secretary Carter’s breadth of experience and scope of responsibilities. His newly published memoir, “Inside the Five-Sided Box: Lessons from a Lifetime of Leadership in the Pentagon” offers an insider’s look at what it was like to head the largest department in the government with its millions of staff members and near trillion-dollar budget.
Demetri begins this conversation by asking Secretary Ash Carter about his experience serving under Barack Obama, the unique challenges of dealing with Congress, and the exigencies of protecting the citizenry from threats, both at home and abroad. Secretary Carter also addresses some of the constitutional conflicts that arise from NSA surveillance and targeted assassinations of enemy combatants or terrorist suspects operating outside of traditional warzones and military theaters.
In this episode, Demetri attempts to identify and do away with many of the assumptions that are embedded in much of the language and in many of the conversations around US foreign policy. This is meant as an honest and informed exploration about the nature of American power and what it means in practice. How we might begin to think about international relations in a gig-economy where people are increasingly working contractually on projects with team members located in just about every corner of the globe?
Also, Dr. Carter has thought extensively about the future of warfare in the 21stcentury, including the role of autonomous weapons, artificial intelligence, and cyberwarfare, topics that he and Demetri discuss in this episode as well.
The overtime to this week’s episode includes an hour-long excerpt from Demetri’s yet-to-be-released recording with renowned political scientist and historian of American foreign policy Stephen Walt. You can gain access to that recording, as well as obtain a copy of the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces patreon page at Patreon.com/HiddenForces.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe & Support the Show at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
In Episode 89 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jamie Metzl about the cutting edge of genomic science, synthetic biology, and big data. The two also discuss US-China relations, North Korea’s nuclear program, post-Soviet Russian history, Iraq, Iran, and so much more.
Jamie Metzl is described by Wikipedia as “an American technology futurist, geopolitical expert, and writer.” He’s also a novelist, entrepreneur, and media commentator. He’s authored six books, including one with his former boss Richard Clarke, who he worked for at the US State Department and while serving in the National Security Council. Richard Clarke, who was National Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism during the late Clinton and early Bush administrations, became a political target after publishing a 2004 memoir about his service in government that was highly critical of the Bush administration’s counter-terrorism efforts before 9/11. He also testified before the 9/11 Commission, which was discussed during the overtime of Episode 72 with Senator Bob Kerrey, who served on the 9/11 Commission. Listeners who are subscribed to our Patreon overtime feed can hear Jamie and Demetri discuss geopolitical history and current affairs, including a discussion about US-China relations, North Korea’s nuclear program, post-Soviet Russian history, Iraq, Iran, and much more.
The focus of this full episode, however, is on the consequences stemming from innovations happening in the fields of genomic science, synthetic biology, and big data (designer babies, biohacking, de-extinction, etc.). This is an honest and open conversation about the ethics and prudence of human innovation, and how it’s creating a world that feels alien to many of us. Jamie Metzl also speaks about the social, political, and economic implications of a world where wealthy, well-connected elites or nations with authoritarian governments are able to get their hands on these technologies before the general public.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod