In Episode 5 of Hidden Forces, host Demetri Kofinas speaks with Christopher Cole about political and financial volatility. Chris is the founder of Artemis Capital and the portfolio manager of the Artemis Vega Fund, which seeks to profit from periods of financial volatility, dislocation, and systemic crisis in financial markets. His core focus is systematic, quantitative, and behavioral based trading of financial volatility derivatives.
What is volatility? What accounts for the unprecedented levels of mean reversion in implied volatility that we have seen in financial markets? What accounts for volatility persistence? Demetri and Chris compare spot (historic) volatility to implied (forward) volatility. They look at volatility-of-volatility (vol-of-vol). Christopher Cole presents his opinion that modern portfolio and system rebalancing strategies actually dampen financial volatility. Demetri sees these strategies as increasing volatility in the long-term, which Chris agrees with. Christopher also makes the further point that stocks are overvalued when looked at from enterprise value to EBITDA, Case Schiller PE, Price to Book, Price to Sales, etc. He also believes that financial volatility could come from either the left or right tail of the distribution. We could have inflation or deflation, according to Christopher. His objective is to profit regardless of whether we get a move upwards or downwards in prices. What is the best way to carry volatility and go long uncertainty?
The concepts discussed in this episode may appear complicated, but they are really rather simple. What listeners need to remember is that volatility is just change. Volatility reflects uncertainty, and we live in uncertain times. This episode is about learning how to embrace this uncertainty. It is about learning how to embrace change. It is an episode about learning how to profit from risk by capitalizing on the unknown.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor: Connor Lynch
Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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In Episode 4 of Hidden Forces,host Demetri Kofinas speaks with famed historian of television culture, Gary Edgerton. Professor Edgerton is Dean of the College of Communication at Butler University. He has published eleven books and more than eighty book chapters, journal articles, and encyclopedia entries on a wide assortment of media and television culture topics. He is also co-editor of the Journal of Popular Film and Television. His award-winning book, The Columbia History of American Television, was named the 2008 John G. Cawelti Award winner for Outstanding Scholarly Inquiry into American Cultural Studies by the American Culture Association.
In their conversation, Demetri and Gary discuss the history of television as a technology and storytelling medium that fundamentally transformed American society and culture from the end of World War II until the present day. They explore the ways in which the growing aspirations of Americans – their changing norms, their victories, as well as their tragedies – played themselves out on their flickering, analogue screens. They consider the various ways in which American society dealt with the tragedy of Vietnam through shows like MASHand the A-Team. They explore the coming of age story through shows like MacGyver, Nightrider, and The Wonder Years. Gary comments on the significance of protofeminist programs like I Love Lucy and later, The Mary Tyler Moore Show. The two discuss Baywatchand The Cosby Show, as examples of the power of international syndication. The subject of racism in America is also discussed through the example of shows like Amos ‘n’ Andy, as well as All in the Family. Demetri and Gary also discuss some of the more technical innovations of television, including the origin of the “close-up” as a tool for aiding character development and its successful implementation in the popular soap operas of the day. Finally, Gary Edgerton provides his thoughts about how television has (and will continue) to transform itself in the digital age of the 21stcentury.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor: Connor Lynch
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In Episode 3 of Hidden Forces, host Demetri Kofinas speaks with philosopher and theologian Mark C. Taylor. Mark is Chair of the Department of Religion and Co-Director of the Institute for Religion, Culture and Public Life. A leading figure in debates about postmodernism, Taylor has written on topics ranging from philosophy, religion, literature, art and architecture to education, media, science, technology and economics. He has authored 30 books, among which include Journeys to Selfhood: Hegel and Kierkegaard, About Religion: Economies of Faith in Virtual Culture, Confidence Games: Money and Markets in a World without Redemption, The Moment of Complexity: Emerging Network Culture, and Speed Limits: Where Time Went and Why We Have So Little Left.
In this episode, we cover topics in religion, finance, art, and technology. Most importantly, we take this journey as individuals, exploring the paths blazed for us by Martin Luther and his Protestant Reformation. We build on the works of Ockham and Thomas Aquinas. We learn about economic philosophers like Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek, who addressed the problems of non-linearity, information networks, and how complex systems create order from chaos. We look at how technology, for all its benefits, still leaves something to be desired. Perhaps this stems from a fundamental contradiction in its application to the human experience. Lastly, we ask, “what is it all for? What does it all mean? Where are we going, and why the great hurry?”
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor: Connor Lynch
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In Episode 2 of Hidden Forces, host Demetri Kofinas speaks with New York Times bestselling author and financial commentator, Jim Rickards. Jim is the author of multiple New York Times bestsellers including The Death of Money, Currency Wars, and The New Case For Gold. His latest book is The Road To Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis. He is the editor of the Strategic Intelligence newsletter and a member of the advisory board of the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins. He's an adviser to the Department of Defense and the U.S. intelligence community on international economics and financial threats and served as a facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon.
Jim and Demetri explore financial history stretching back to some of the earliest economic philosophers. They recall the deregulation of US financial system from the time of Bretton Woods, through the financial panics in Asia in the late 1990s to the Financial Crisis of 2008. Jim Rickards address one of the economics professions' greatest weaknesses, namely, the desperate need for better modeling. What can complexity theory, Bayesian analysis, and behavioral psychology tell us about our world? How can these theories help improve or replace our broken models? The two end with projections about the future. Jim gives his rationale for why he believes the next crisis will be larger and could run deeper than what any of us might imagine.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor: Connor Lynch
Engineering: Ignacio Lecumberri
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